diff --git a/packages/compiler/src/frontend/lowering/lower-stmts.ts b/packages/compiler/src/frontend/lowering/lower-stmts.ts
index ad4fd5312..7eb86d6d9 100644
--- a/packages/compiler/src/frontend/lowering/lower-stmts.ts
+++ b/packages/compiler/src/frontend/lowering/lower-stmts.ts
@@ -4334,16 +4334,21 @@ export function lowerVarDecl(
       if (wrapped) return { kind: "assign", localId: g.id, value: wrapped, loc: locOf(decl) };
       return null;
     }
-    const raw = lowerVariableInitializer(
-      lowerer,
-      decl.initializer,
-      g.type.kind === "dyn" &&
-        (isNativeBuiltinValueInitializer(lowerer, decl.initializer) ||
-          ts.isArrayLiteralExpression(decl.initializer) ||
-          ts.isObjectLiteralExpression(decl.initializer))
-        ? DYN
-        : undefined,
-    );
+    const guardedRead = isGuardedRecordRead(lowerer, decl)
+      ? lowerAbsenceProbe(lowerer, decl.initializer)
+      : null;
+    const raw =
+      guardedRead ??
+      lowerVariableInitializer(
+        lowerer,
+        decl.initializer,
+        g.type.kind === "dyn" &&
+          (isNativeBuiltinValueInitializer(lowerer, decl.initializer) ||
+            ts.isArrayLiteralExpression(decl.initializer) ||
+            ts.isObjectLiteralExpression(decl.initializer))
+          ? DYN
+          : undefined,
+      );
     if (
       isJsSourceFile(decl.getSourceFile()) &&
       !decl.type &&
@@ -5139,29 +5144,111 @@ export function jsBindingHasOpenWrites(lowerer: Lowerer, decl: ts.VariableDeclar
 }
 
 function immediatelyGuardedAbsenceProbe(lowerer: Lowerer, decl: ts.VariableDeclaration): boolean {
-  if (decl.type || !ts.isIdentifier(decl.name) || !decl.initializer) return false;
+  const guard = immediateAbsenceGuard(lowerer, decl);
+  // `if (!x)`: the falsy test sees a missing value.
+  if (guard === "falsy") return true;
+  // `if (x === undefined)` and its spellings compare the binding with the
+  // missing value itself, so the read must be able to produce it. Only
+  // index-signature record reads take this form: array reads already
+  // carry their undefined arm, and their ordinary lowering keeps its
+  // bounds proofs.
+  return guard === "compare" && isIndexSignatureRecordRead(lowerer, decl);
+}
+
+/** A file-scope or block-scope `let e = map[k]` over an index-signature
+ * record whose next statement guards `e` for absence (`if (e ===
+ * undefined)`, `if (!e)`, ...): the get-or-create idiom. Its read keeps the
+ * missing key as undefined even without noUncheckedIndexedAccess. */
+export function isGuardedRecordRead(lowerer: Lowerer, decl: ts.VariableDeclaration): boolean {
+  return immediateAbsenceGuard(lowerer, decl) !== null && isIndexSignatureRecordRead(lowerer, decl);
+}
+
+function isIndexSignatureRecordRead(lowerer: Lowerer, decl: ts.VariableDeclaration): boolean {
+  if (!decl.initializer) return false;
+  let init = decl.initializer;
+  while (ts.isParenthesizedExpression(init)) init = init.expression;
+  if (!ts.isElementAccessExpression(init)) return false;
+  // Under noUncheckedIndexedAccess the checker already spells the missing
+  // arm, and the ordinary read carries it.
+  const read = lowerer.typeOf(init);
+  if (
+    (read.flags & (ts.TypeFlags.Undefined | ts.TypeFlags.Any | ts.TypeFlags.Unknown)) !== 0 ||
+    (read.isUnionType() &&
+      ts.constituentTypes(read).some((t) => (t.flags & ts.TypeFlags.Undefined) !== 0))
+  )
+    return false;
+  const receiver = lowerer.mapTypeOf(lowerer.typeOf(init.expression));
+  const shape = receiver?.kind === "record" ? lowerer.shapes.get(receiver.shapeId) : undefined;
+  return !!shape && !shape.tuple && !!shape.indexValue && shape.indexValue.kind !== "dyn";
+}
+
+/** How the statement right after an unannotated declaration tests the
+ * declared binding for absence: `if (!x)` ("falsy"), or a comparison with
+ * the missing value — `x === undefined`, `x == null`, `x !== void 0`,
+ * `typeof x === "undefined"` and their mirrored and negated spellings
+ * ("compare"). Null for anything else. */
+function immediateAbsenceGuard(
+  lowerer: Lowerer,
+  decl: ts.VariableDeclaration,
+): "falsy" | "compare" | null {
+  if (decl.type || !ts.isIdentifier(decl.name) || !decl.initializer) return null;
   const statement = decl.parent?.parent;
-  if (!statement || !ts.isVariableStatement(statement)) return false;
+  if (!statement || !ts.isVariableStatement(statement)) return null;
   const container = statement.parent;
   const statements =
     ts.isBlock(container) || ts.isSourceFile(container) ? container.statements : null;
-  if (!statements) return false;
+  if (!statements) return null;
   const index = statements.indexOf(statement);
   const next = index >= 0 ? statements[index + 1] : undefined;
-  if (!next || !ts.isIfStatement(next)) return false;
-  let condition = next.expression;
-  while (ts.isParenthesizedExpression(condition)) condition = condition.expression;
-  if (
-    !ts.isPrefixUnaryExpression(condition) ||
-    condition.operator !== ts.SyntaxKind.ExclamationToken
-  )
-    return false;
-  let operand = condition.operand;
-  while (ts.isParenthesizedExpression(operand)) operand = operand.expression;
-  return (
-    ts.isIdentifier(operand) &&
-    lowerer.resolveValueSymbol(operand) === lowerer.resolveValueSymbol(decl.name)
-  );
+  if (!next || !ts.isIfStatement(next)) return null;
+  const binding = lowerer.resolveValueSymbol(decl.name);
+  const peel = (node: ts.Expression): ts.Expression => {
+    while (ts.isParenthesizedExpression(node)) node = node.expression;
+    return node;
+  };
+  const isBinding = (node: ts.Expression): boolean => {
+    const operand = peel(node);
+    return ts.isIdentifier(operand) && lowerer.resolveValueSymbol(operand) === binding;
+  };
+  const condition = peel(next.expression);
+  if (ts.isPrefixUnaryExpression(condition))
+    return condition.operator === ts.SyntaxKind.ExclamationToken && isBinding(condition.operand)
+      ? "falsy"
+      : null;
+  if (!ts.isBinaryExpression(condition)) return null;
+  const op = condition.operatorToken.kind;
+  const strict =
+    op === ts.SyntaxKind.EqualsEqualsEqualsToken ||
+    op === ts.SyntaxKind.ExclamationEqualsEqualsToken;
+  const loose =
+    op === ts.SyntaxKind.EqualsEqualsToken || op === ts.SyntaxKind.ExclamationEqualsToken;
+  if (!strict && !loose) return null;
+  const isUndefined = (node: ts.Expression): boolean => {
+    const operand = peel(node);
+    if (ts.isVoidExpression(operand)) return true;
+    return (
+      ts.isIdentifier(operand) &&
+      operand.text === "undefined" &&
+      (lowerer.typeOf(operand).flags & ts.TypeFlags.Undefined) !== 0
+    );
+  };
+  const isNull = (node: ts.Expression): boolean => peel(node).kind === ts.SyntaxKind.NullKeyword;
+  const missing = (node: ts.Expression): boolean => isUndefined(node) || (loose && isNull(node));
+  const isTypeofBinding = (node: ts.Expression): boolean => {
+    const operand = peel(node);
+    return ts.isTypeOfExpression(operand) && isBinding(operand.expression);
+  };
+  const isUndefinedTag = (node: ts.Expression): boolean => {
+    const operand = peel(node);
+    return ts.isStringLiteralLike(operand) && operand.text === "undefined";
+  };
+  const { left, right } = condition;
+  return (isBinding(left) && missing(right)) ||
+    (missing(left) && isBinding(right)) ||
+    (isTypeofBinding(left) && isUndefinedTag(right)) ||
+    (isUndefinedTag(left) && isTypeofBinding(right))
+    ? "compare"
+    : null;
 }
 
 function falsyExitRuntimeOptionalLocals(lowerer: Lowerer, stmt: ts.IfStatement): IrLocal[] {
diff --git a/packages/compiler/src/frontend/lowering/lowerer.ts b/packages/compiler/src/frontend/lowering/lowerer.ts
index 12deec7ad..aca306900 100644
--- a/packages/compiler/src/frontend/lowering/lowerer.ts
+++ b/packages/compiler/src/frontend/lowering/lowerer.ts
@@ -525,6 +525,7 @@ import {
   lowerForOf,
   lowerForStatement,
   matchGroupsPatternSource,
+  isGuardedRecordRead,
 } from "./lower-stmts.js";
 import {
   type FieldTarget,
@@ -3908,6 +3909,33 @@ export class Lowerer {
     }
   }
 
+  /** A file-scope get-or-create read (`let e = map[k]; if (e ===
+   * undefined) ...` over an index-signature record) keeps a missing key as
+   * undefined (isGuardedRecordRead). Its pre-registered global takes the
+   * undefined arm before any body reads it; the declaration lowers its
+   * initializer as the matching absence probe. */
+  analyzeGuardedRecordReadGlobals(parts: FileParts[]): void {
+    for (const { sf } of parts) {
+      for (const statement of sf.statements) {
+        if (!ts.isVariableStatement(statement)) continue;
+        for (const decl of statement.declarationList.declarations) {
+          if (!ts.isIdentifier(decl.name) || !isGuardedRecordRead(this, decl)) continue;
+          const global = this.globalOf(decl.name);
+          const symbol = this.resolveValueSymbol(decl.name);
+          if (!global || !symbol || global.tdz || this.runtimeOptionalBindingTypes.has(symbol))
+            continue;
+          const widened =
+            global.type.kind === "union"
+              ? this.withUndefinedArmOf(global.type)
+              : this.withUndefinedArm(global.type);
+          if (!widened || typeEquals(widened, global.type)) continue;
+          global.type = widened;
+          this.runtimeOptionalBindingTypes.set(symbol, widened);
+        }
+      }
+    }
+  }
+
   analyzeRuntimeOptionalArrayReads(parts: FileParts[]): void {
     const provenance = RuntimeOptionalProvenance.fromEnvironment();
     // The site whose value the current promotion follows (debug only).
@@ -6058,6 +6086,7 @@ export class Lowerer {
     this.collectProgram(parts);
     this.analyzeRuntimeOptionalArrayReads(parts);
     this.analyzeDateJsonResults(parts);
+    this.analyzeGuardedRecordReadGlobals(parts);
     // Decorated classes analyze AFTER the whole collection pass: a
     // decorator's return type may name a subclass declared below the
     // class, and reference lowering needs each class's rebindability
@@ -6443,6 +6472,7 @@ export class Lowerer {
     this.collectProgram(parts);
     this.analyzeRuntimeOptionalArrayReads(parts);
     this.analyzeDateJsonResults(parts);
+    this.analyzeGuardedRecordReadGlobals(parts);
     // Decorated classes analyze post-collection here too: the %init seeds
     // lower the decoration calls, whose edges (decorator bodies, construct
     // thunks) reachable emit must see.
diff --git a/packages/compiler/test/ts7/baselines/order-parity/tests/corpus/6100-record-get-or-create.ts.json b/packages/compiler/test/ts7/baselines/order-parity/tests/corpus/6100-record-get-or-create.ts.json
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..b7c18a8a4
--- /dev/null
+++ b/packages/compiler/test/ts7/baselines/order-parity/tests/corpus/6100-record-get-or-create.ts.json
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+{
+ "order": [
+  "<repo>/tests/corpus/6100-record-get-or-create.ts"
+ ],
+ "diags": []
+}
diff --git a/tests/corpus/6100-record-get-or-create.ts b/tests/corpus/6100-record-get-or-create.ts
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..807cb303e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/corpus/6100-record-get-or-create.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,119 @@
+// Get-or-create over nested index-signature records without
+// noUncheckedIndexedAccess: a missing key reads as undefined when the next
+// statement tests the binding for absence, in every spelling of that test,
+// at module scope and inside functions. A write with a computed key through
+// a binding that may hold a missing element throws Node's TypeError after
+// the key and the value evaluated.
+type ExportMap = Record<string, Record<string, string>>;
+
+interface Target {
+  subpath: string;
+  condition: string;
+  target: string;
+}
+
+function build(targets: Target[]): { exports: ExportMap; unmapped: string[] } {
+  const exports: ExportMap = {};
+  const unmapped: string[] = [];
+  for (const t of targets) {
+    if (t.target === "") {
+      unmapped.push(t.subpath);
+      continue;
+    }
+    let entry = exports[t.subpath];
+    if (entry === undefined) {
+      entry = {};
+      exports[t.subpath] = entry;
+    }
+    entry[t.condition] = `./${t.target}`;
+    entry["types"] = `./${t.target}`;
+  }
+  return { exports: exports, unmapped: unmapped };
+}
+
+const result = build([
+  { subpath: ".", condition: "import", target: "src/index.ts" },
+  { subpath: ".", condition: "require", target: "src/index.ts" },
+  { subpath: "./x", condition: "default", target: "" },
+  { subpath: "./y", condition: "node", target: "src/y.ts" },
+]);
+console.log(JSON.stringify(result.exports), result.unmapped.join(","));
+
+function group(words: string[]): Record<string, string[]> {
+  const byInitial: Record<string, string[]> = {};
+  for (const w of words) {
+    const k = w.slice(0, 1);
+    let list = byInitial[k];
+    if (list == null) {
+      list = [];
+      byInitial[k] = list;
+    }
+    list.push(w);
+  }
+  return byInitial;
+}
+console.log(JSON.stringify(group(["apple", "avocado", "banana", "blueberry", "cherry"])));
+
+function count(words: string[]): Record<string, number> {
+  const counts: Record<string, number> = {};
+  for (const w of words) {
+    const n = counts[w];
+    if (typeof n === "undefined") counts[w] = 1;
+    else counts[w] = n + 1;
+  }
+  return counts;
+}
+console.log(JSON.stringify(count(["a", "b", "a", "c", "a"])));
+
+function lookup(table: Record<string, string>, key: string): string {
+  const hit = table[key];
+  if (hit !== undefined) return hit;
+  return `<${key} missing>`;
+}
+console.log(lookup({ a: "A" }, "a"), lookup({ a: "A" }, "b"));
+
+function rows(table: Record<string, Record<string, number>>, key: string, col: string): number {
+  const row = table[key];
+  if (row != undefined) return row[col] ?? -1;
+  return -2;
+}
+console.log(rows({ r: { c: 3 } }, "r", "c"), rows({ r: { c: 3 } }, "r", "d"), rows({}, "x", "c"));
+
+// Module scope.
+const nested: Record<string, Record<string, number>> = {};
+const key = process.argv.length > 99 ? "unused" : "k";
+let slot = nested[key];
+if (slot === undefined) {
+  slot = {};
+  nested[key] = slot;
+}
+slot[key] = 1;
+slot["fixed"] = 2;
+console.log(JSON.stringify(nested));
+
+const names: Record<string, string> = { present: "yes" };
+const missing = names[key];
+if (!missing) console.log("falsy guard:", missing);
+const present = names["present"];
+if (present === void 0) console.log("unreachable");
+else console.log("present:", present);
+
+// A write with a computed key through a binding that may hold a missing
+// array element throws Node's TypeError naming the key, after evaluating
+// the key and the value.
+function probe(tables: Record<string, string>[]): void {
+  const firstTable = tables[0];
+  const lastTable = tables[5];
+  const pick = (k: string): string => {
+    console.log("key", k);
+    return k;
+  };
+  firstTable[pick("b")] = pick("second");
+  console.log(JSON.stringify(firstTable));
+  try {
+    lastTable[pick("c")] = pick("value");
+  } catch (e) {
+    console.log((e as Error).name, (e as Error).message);
+  }
+}
+probe([{ a: "first" }]);